Reference
Poker math reference
Use shortcuts at the table; use exact arithmetic when reviewing. The goal is not to turn poker into a spreadsheet—it is to know what the shortcuts approximate.
| Clean outs on flop | Hit on turn | Hit by river |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8.51% | 16.47% |
| 8 | 17.02% | 31.45% |
| 9 | 19.15% | 34.97% |
| 12 | 25.53% | 45.03% |
| 15 | 31.91% | 54.12% |
The “4 and 2” shortcut
A common mental approximation multiplies flop outs by about 4 for a rough by-river percentage and turn outs by about 2 for a one-card percentage. It is convenient, not exact, and becomes less accurate as the out count rises.
Combination counts behind range thinking
Before community cards or blockers are known, a specific pocket pair has 6 suit combinations, a specific suited non-pair has 4 combinations, and a specific offsuit non-pair has 12. Visible cards remove combinations, which is why blockers change range weights.