Test your baccarat betting system
Pick a system, a bankroll and a table maximum, then run it through thousands of shoes dealt with real drawing rules. You get the ruin rate, the spread of final bankrolls, and the one number no system moves: loss divided by money bet.
Defaults: 10,000 one-shoe sessions, about 800,000 hands.
How each system is defined
| System | After a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|
| Flat | Bet 1 unit | Bet 1 unit |
| Martingale | Back to 1 unit | Double the last bet |
| Paroli | Double, up to three wins in a row (1, 2, 4), then back to 1 | Back to 1 unit |
| Fibonacci | Move two steps back in 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8… (not below the start) | Move one step forward |
| D’Alembert | One unit less (minimum 1) | One unit more |
| 1-3-2-6 | Next step of 1, 3, 2, 6; after winning the 6, back to 1 | Back to 1 unit |
- Ties: a Player or Banker bet pushes on a tie. Nothing changes and the same bet goes again. A Tie bet wins only on a tie and loses on anything else.
- Banker wins pay 0.95 to 1 in the standard game and count as a win. In EZ, a three-card Banker 7 is a push.
- Table maximum or short bankroll: if the system calls for more than the table maximum, or more than you have left, it starts over at 1 unit. That’s where Martingale’s losses get locked in.
- Ruin: a session stops when the bankroll drops below one unit. The ruin rate is the share of sessions that stopped that way.
- Shoes: each shoe is shuffled fresh, burned, and played until the cut card (16 cards from the end).
Why loss ÷ action always lands on the house edge
Each bet you place has an expected loss equal to the house edge times its size: about 1.06 for every 100 staked on Banker. A system only decides how big the next bet is, using results that are already in. It can’t see the next hand. So the expected total loss is the house edge times the total amount bet, whatever the system. What systems do change is how much you bet in total, how often you go broke, and how lopsided the results are. Martingale wins small amounts often and loses big rarely, which shows up as a median final bankroll above where you started, a mean below it, and a real ruin rate.
We checked this before launch. With a base bet of 10, a table maximum of 1,000, an unlimited bankroll and 30,000 shoes per system on Banker, loss ÷ action came out at:
| System | Hands | Loss ÷ action (± 2 SE) | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 2,396,463 | 1.093% ± 0.120 | 1.058% |
| Martingale | 2,395,894 | 0.886% ± 0.272 | 1.058% |
| Paroli | 2,397,014 | 1.173% ± 0.140 | 1.058% |
| Fibonacci | 2,396,484 | 1.167% ± 0.285 | 1.058% |
| D’Alembert | 2,396,566 | 1.108% ± 0.159 | 1.058% |
| 1-3-2-6 | 2,396,052 | 0.952% ± 0.145 | 1.058% |
Read more in baccarat betting systems and casino session cost.